Mounana 2–0 Vautour Club: Result & Stats

Mounana

FT

2 – 0

Vautour Club

11/13/2022

Championnat D1 · Round 4Stade Augustin Monédan de Sibang

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Mounana33%

×Draw27%

Vautour Club39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MounanaExpected goals in this matchVautour Club

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.28

Mounana

1.16

Vautour Club

1.28

Vautour Club creates 10% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 33 away

1.10

creates per match

1.36

1.20

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Mounana

1.10

Vautour Club

1.36

allows per match

Mounana

1.20

Vautour Club

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mounana+0.00on par

Vautour Club+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mounana ↓

Vautour Club →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Mounana or draw

61%

Mounana or Vautour Club

73%

Draw or Vautour Club

67%

Winning margin

Mounana wins by 2+

14%

Vautour Club wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Mounana 1+ goals

69%

Mounana 2+ goals

32%

Mounana 3+ goals

11%

Vautour Club 1+ goals

72%

Vautour Club 2+ goals

37%

Vautour Club 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Mounana (draw refunded)

46%

Vautour Club (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mounana at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.20 · 20 matches

Vautour Club away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.21 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mounana attack 1.10 + Vautour Club defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.16

Vautour Club attack 1.36 + Mounana defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Mounana scores more

33%

level

27%

Vautour Club scores more

39%

Vautour Club at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Vautour Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff