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Mouna vs Stella — Ligue 1 2019

Mouna
Mouna
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Stella
Stella
2/7/2026Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Mouna33%
×Draw29%
Stella37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mouna
1.06
Stella
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 79 away

creates per match

Mouna
1.02
Stella
1.01

allows per match

Mouna
1.27
Stella
1.10

finishing

Mouna+0.00on par
Stella+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mouna ↓

Stella →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Mouna or draw
63%
Mouna or Stella
71%
Draw or Stella
67%

Winning margin

Mouna wins by 2+
13%
Stella wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Mouna 1+ goals
65%
Mouna 2+ goals
29%
Mouna 3+ goals
9%
Stella 1+ goals
68%
Stella 2+ goals
32%
Stella 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Mouna (draw refunded)
47%
Stella (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mouna at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.27 · 45 matches

Stella away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.10 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mouna attack 1.02 + Stella defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.06

Stella attack 1.01 + Mouna defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Mouna scores more
33%
level
29%
Stella scores more
37%

Stella at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Stella will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mouna vs Stella

Mouna beat Stella 1-0 in Ligue 1 on February 7, 2026.