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Mouna vs Denguélé — Ligue 1 2019

Mouna
Mouna
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Denguélé
Denguélé
4/7/2024Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 22Parc des Sports de Treichville

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Mouna42%
×Draw28%
Denguélé30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mouna
1.25
Denguélé
1.02

Mouna creates 23% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

creates per match

Mouna
1.02
Denguélé
0.78

allows per match

Mouna
1.27
Denguélé
1.47

finishing

Mouna+0.00on par
Denguélé+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mouna ↓

Denguélé →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Mouna or draw
70%
Mouna or Denguélé
72%
Draw or Denguélé
58%

Winning margin

Mouna wins by 2+
18%
Denguélé wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Mouna 1+ goals
71%
Mouna 2+ goals
36%
Mouna 3+ goals
13%
Denguélé 1+ goals
64%
Denguélé 2+ goals
27%
Denguélé 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Mouna (draw refunded)
58%
Denguélé (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mouna at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.27 · 45 matches

Denguélé away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.47 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mouna attack 1.02 + Denguélé defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.25

Denguélé attack 0.78 + Mouna defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Mouna scores more
42%
level
28%
Denguélé scores more
30%

Mouna at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Mouna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Mouna 3–0 Denguélé

Mouna beat Denguélé 3-0 in Ligue 1 on April 7, 2024.

The match was played at Parc des Sports de Treichville in Abidjan.