Mouloudia Oujda 1–3 UTS Rabat: Result & Stats

Mouloudia Oujda

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

UTS Rabat

9/2/2023

Botola Pro · Round 2Stade d'Honneur d'Oujda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Mouloudia Oujda40%

×Draw28%

UTS Rabat33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mouloudia OujdaExpected goals in this matchUTS Rabat

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.12

Mouloudia Oujda

1.27

UTS Rabat

1.12

Mouloudia Oujda creates 13% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 61 away

1.17

creates per match

1.07

1.17

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Mouloudia Oujda

1.17

UTS Rabat

1.07

allows per match

Mouloudia Oujda

1.17

UTS Rabat

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mouloudia Oujda+0.00on par

UTS Rabat+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mouloudia Oujda ↓

UTS Rabat →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Mouloudia Oujda or draw

67%

Mouloudia Oujda or UTS Rabat

72%

Draw or UTS Rabat

60%

Winning margin

Mouloudia Oujda wins by 2+

18%

UTS Rabat wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Mouloudia Oujda 1+ goals

72%

Mouloudia Oujda 2+ goals

36%

Mouloudia Oujda 3+ goals

14%

UTS Rabat 1+ goals

67%

UTS Rabat 2+ goals

31%

UTS Rabat 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Mouloudia Oujda (draw refunded)

55%

UTS Rabat (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mouloudia Oujda at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.17 · 90 matches

UTS Rabat away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.36 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mouloudia Oujda attack 1.17 + UTS Rabat defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.27

UTS Rabat attack 1.07 + Mouloudia Oujda defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Mouloudia Oujda scores more

40%

level

28%

UTS Rabat scores more

33%

Mouloudia Oujda at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Mouloudia Oujda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff