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Mouloudia Oujda vs Renaissance Berkane — Botola Pro 2025

Mouloudia Oujda
Mouloudia Oujda
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Renaissance Berkane
Renaissance Berkane
5/29/2022Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 24Stade d'Honneur d'Oujda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Mouloudia Oujda33%
×Draw30%
Renaissance Berkane37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mouloudia Oujda
1.02
Renaissance Berkane
1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 90 home / 120 away

creates per match

Mouloudia Oujda
1.17
Renaissance Berkane
1.02

allows per match

Mouloudia Oujda
1.17
Renaissance Berkane
0.88

finishing

Mouloudia Oujda+0.00on par
Renaissance Berkane+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mouloudia Oujda ↓

Renaissance Berkane →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Mouloudia Oujda or draw
63%
Mouloudia Oujda or Renaissance Berkane
70%
Draw or Renaissance Berkane
67%

Winning margin

Mouloudia Oujda wins by 2+
13%
Renaissance Berkane wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Mouloudia Oujda 1+ goals
64%
Mouloudia Oujda 2+ goals
27%
Mouloudia Oujda 3+ goals
8%
Renaissance Berkane 1+ goals
66%
Renaissance Berkane 2+ goals
30%
Renaissance Berkane 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Mouloudia Oujda (draw refunded)
47%
Renaissance Berkane (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mouloudia Oujda at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.17 · 90 matches

Renaissance Berkane away — creates 1.02, concedes 0.88 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mouloudia Oujda attack 1.17 + Renaissance Berkane defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.02

Renaissance Berkane attack 1.02 + Mouloudia Oujda defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Mouloudia Oujda scores more
33%
level
30%
Renaissance Berkane scores more
37%

Renaissance Berkane at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Renaissance Berkane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mouloudia Oujda vs Renaissance Berkane

Mouloudia Oujda beat Renaissance Berkane 2-1 in Botola Pro on May 29, 2022.

The match was played at Stade d'Honneur d'Oujda in Oujda.