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Mouloudia Oujda vs Olympique Safi — Botola Pro 2025

Mouloudia Oujda
Mouloudia Oujda
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Olympique Safi
Olympique Safi
11/5/2023Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 8Stade d'Honneur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Mouloudia Oujda40%
×Draw28%
Olympique Safi32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mouloudia Oujda
1.23
Olympique Safi
1.06

Mouloudia Oujda creates 16% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 120 away

creates per match

Mouloudia Oujda
1.17
Olympique Safi
0.96

allows per match

Mouloudia Oujda
1.17
Olympique Safi
1.29

finishing

Mouloudia Oujda+0.00on par
Olympique Safi+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mouloudia Oujda ↓

Olympique Safi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Mouloudia Oujda or draw
68%
Mouloudia Oujda or Olympique Safi
72%
Draw or Olympique Safi
60%

Winning margin

Mouloudia Oujda wins by 2+
17%
Olympique Safi wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Mouloudia Oujda 1+ goals
71%
Mouloudia Oujda 2+ goals
35%
Mouloudia Oujda 3+ goals
13%
Olympique Safi 1+ goals
65%
Olympique Safi 2+ goals
29%
Olympique Safi 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Mouloudia Oujda (draw refunded)
56%
Olympique Safi (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mouloudia Oujda at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.17 · 90 matches

Olympique Safi away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.29 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mouloudia Oujda attack 1.17 + Olympique Safi defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.23

Olympique Safi attack 0.96 + Mouloudia Oujda defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Mouloudia Oujda scores more
40%
level
28%
Olympique Safi scores more
32%

Mouloudia Oujda at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Mouloudia Oujda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mouloudia Oujda vs Olympique Safi

Mouloudia Oujda and Olympique Safi drew 1-1 in Botola Pro on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Stade d'Honneur in Meknès.