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Motril vs Real Jaén — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Motril
Motril
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Real Jaén
Real Jaén
2/25/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 23Estadio Escribano Castilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Motril44%
×Draw27%
Real Jaén29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Motril
1.40
Real Jaén
1.08

Motril creates 30% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 93 away

creates per match

Motril
1.76
Real Jaén
1.15

allows per match

Motril
1.01
Real Jaén
1.03

finishing

Motril+0.00on par
Real Jaén+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Motril ↓

Real Jaén →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Motril or draw
71%
Motril or Real Jaén
73%
Draw or Real Jaén
56%

Winning margin

Motril wins by 2+
21%
Real Jaén wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Motril 1+ goals
75%
Motril 2+ goals
41%
Motril 3+ goals
17%
Real Jaén 1+ goals
66%
Real Jaén 2+ goals
29%
Real Jaén 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Motril (draw refunded)
60%
Real Jaén (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Motril at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.01 · 112 matches

Real Jaén away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.03 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Motril attack 1.76 + Real Jaén defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.40

Real Jaén attack 1.15 + Motril defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Motril scores more
44%
level
27%
Real Jaén scores more
29%

Motril at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Motril will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Motril vs Real Jaén

Motril and Real Jaén drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on February 25, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Escribano Castilla in Motril.