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Motril vs Melilla CD — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Motril
Motril
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Melilla CD
Melilla CD
1/23/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 11Estadio Escribano Castilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Motril66%
×Draw19%
Melilla CD15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Motril
2.19
Melilla CD
0.92

Motril creates 138% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 28 away

creates per match

Motril
1.76
Melilla CD
0.82

allows per match

Motril
1.01
Melilla CD
2.61

finishing

Motril+0.00on par
Melilla CD+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Motril ↓

Melilla CD →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Motril or draw
85%
Motril or Melilla CD
81%
Draw or Melilla CD
34%

Winning margin

Motril wins by 2+
42%
Melilla CD wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Motril 1+ goals
89%
Motril 2+ goals
64%
Motril 3+ goals
37%
Melilla CD 1+ goals
60%
Melilla CD 2+ goals
23%
Melilla CD 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Motril (draw refunded)
82%
Melilla CD (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Motril at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.01 · 112 matches

Melilla CD away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.61 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Motril attack 1.76 + Melilla CD defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 2.19

Melilla CD attack 0.82 + Motril defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Motril scores more
66%
level
19%
Melilla CD scores more
15%

Motril at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Motril will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Motril 1–0 Melilla CD

Motril beat Melilla CD 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on January 23, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Escribano Castilla in Motril.