Motril 1–3 Maracena: Result & Stats

Motril

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Maracena

6/6/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 2nd Phase - 10Estadio Escribano Castilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Motril56%

×Draw24%

Maracena20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MotrilExpected goals in this matchMaracena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.93

Motril

1.71

Maracena

0.93

Motril creates 84% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 61 away

1.76

creates per match

0.85

1.01

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Motril

1.76

Maracena

0.85

allows per match

Motril

1.01

Maracena

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Motril+0.00on par

Maracena+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Motril ↓

Maracena →

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Motril or draw

80%

Motril or Maracena

76%

Draw or Maracena

44%

Winning margin

Motril wins by 2+

31%

Maracena wins by 2+

Team goals

Motril 1+ goals

82%

Motril 2+ goals

51%

Motril 3+ goals

24%

Maracena 1+ goals

61%

Maracena 2+ goals

24%

Maracena 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Motril (draw refunded)

73%

Maracena (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Motril at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.01 · 112 matches

Maracena away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.67 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Motril attack 1.76 + Maracena defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.71

Maracena attack 0.85 + Motril defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 56%?"

Motril scores more

56%

level

24%

Maracena scores more

20%

Motril at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Motril will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff