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Motril vs Málaga II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Motril
Motril
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Málaga II
Málaga II
2/23/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 23Estadio Escribano Castilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Motril43%
×Draw26%
Málaga II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Motril
1.43
Málaga II
1.18

Motril creates 21% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 92 away

creates per match

Motril
1.76
Málaga II
1.35

allows per match

Motril
1.01
Málaga II
1.10

finishing

Motril+0.00on par
Málaga II+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Motril ↓

Málaga II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Motril or draw
69%
Motril or Málaga II
74%
Draw or Málaga II
57%

Winning margin

Motril wins by 2+
20%
Málaga II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Motril 1+ goals
76%
Motril 2+ goals
42%
Motril 3+ goals
17%
Málaga II 1+ goals
69%
Málaga II 2+ goals
33%
Málaga II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Motril (draw refunded)
58%
Málaga II (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Motril at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.01 · 112 matches

Málaga II away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.10 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Motril attack 1.76 + Málaga II defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.43

Málaga II attack 1.35 + Motril defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Motril scores more
43%
level
26%
Málaga II scores more
31%

Motril at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Motril will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Motril vs Málaga II

Málaga II beat Motril 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on February 23, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Escribano Castilla in Motril.