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Motril vs Malaga City — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Motril
Motril
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Malaga City
Malaga City
1/22/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 18Estadio Escribano Castilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Motril61%
×Draw22%
Malaga City16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Motril
1.86
Malaga City
0.84

Motril creates 121% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 49 away

creates per match

Motril
1.76
Malaga City
0.67

allows per match

Motril
1.01
Malaga City
1.96

finishing

Motril+0.00on par
Malaga City+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Motril ↓

Malaga City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Motril or draw
84%
Motril or Malaga City
78%
Draw or Malaga City
39%

Winning margin

Motril wins by 2+
36%
Malaga City wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Motril 1+ goals
84%
Motril 2+ goals
55%
Motril 3+ goals
28%
Malaga City 1+ goals
57%
Malaga City 2+ goals
21%
Malaga City 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Motril (draw refunded)
79%
Malaga City (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Motril at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.01 · 112 matches

Malaga City away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.96 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Motril attack 1.76 + Malaga City defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.86

Malaga City attack 0.67 + Motril defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Motril scores more
61%
level
22%
Malaga City scores more
16%

Motril at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Motril will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Motril 0–1 Malaga City

Malaga City beat Motril 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on January 22, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Escribano Castilla in Motril.