Motril 2–3 Estepona: Result & Stats

Motril

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 2

Estepona

12/20/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 9Estadio Escribano Castilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Motril57%

×Draw25%

Estepona19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MotrilExpected goals in this matchEstepona

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

0.82

Motril

1.63

Estepona

0.82

Motril creates 99% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 14 away

1.76

creates per match

0.64

1.01

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Motril

1.76

Estepona

0.64

allows per match

Motril

1.01

Estepona

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Motril+0.00on par

Estepona+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Motril ↓

Estepona →

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Motril or draw

81%

Motril or Estepona

75%

Draw or Estepona

43%

Winning margin

Motril wins by 2+

31%

Estepona wins by 2+

Team goals

Motril 1+ goals

80%

Motril 2+ goals

48%

Motril 3+ goals

22%

Estepona 1+ goals

56%

Estepona 2+ goals

20%

Estepona 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Motril (draw refunded)

75%

Estepona (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Motril at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.01 · 112 matches

Estepona away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Motril attack 1.76 + Estepona defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.63

Estepona attack 0.64 + Motril defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 57%?"

Motril scores more

57%

level

25%

Estepona scores more

19%

Motril at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Motril will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff