Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Motril vs El Ejido — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Motril
Motril
CANC
00:00
El Ejido
El Ejido
4/26/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 35Estadio Escribano Castilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Motril49%
×Draw25%
El Ejido26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Motril
1.59
El Ejido
1.08

Motril creates 47% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 49 away

creates per match

Motril
1.76
El Ejido
1.16

allows per match

Motril
1.01
El Ejido
1.43

finishing

Motril+0.00on par
El Ejido+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Motril ↓

El Ejido →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Motril or draw
74%
Motril or El Ejido
75%
Draw or El Ejido
51%

Winning margin

Motril wins by 2+
25%
El Ejido wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Motril 1+ goals
80%
Motril 2+ goals
47%
Motril 3+ goals
21%
El Ejido 1+ goals
66%
El Ejido 2+ goals
29%
El Ejido 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Motril (draw refunded)
66%
El Ejido (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Motril at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.01 · 112 matches

El Ejido away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.43 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Motril attack 1.76 + El Ejido defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.59

El Ejido attack 1.16 + Motril defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Motril scores more
49%
level
25%
El Ejido scores more
26%

Motril at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Motril will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Motril face El Ejido (Tercera División RFEF - Group 9)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 returns with Motril hosting El Ejido. Match starts April 26, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Motril host El Ejido at Estadio Escribano Castilla.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.