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Motril vs Almería II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Motril
Motril
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Almería II
Almería II
9/22/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 5Estadio Escribano Castilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Motril43%
×Draw25%
Almería II32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Motril
1.52
Almería II
1.26

Motril creates 21% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 75 away

creates per match

Motril
1.76
Almería II
1.51

allows per match

Motril
1.01
Almería II
1.29

finishing

Motril+0.00on par
Almería II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Motril ↓

Almería II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Motril or draw
68%
Motril or Almería II
75%
Draw or Almería II
57%

Winning margin

Motril wins by 2+
21%
Almería II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Motril 1+ goals
78%
Motril 2+ goals
45%
Motril 3+ goals
20%
Almería II 1+ goals
72%
Almería II 2+ goals
36%
Almería II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Motril (draw refunded)
58%
Almería II (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Motril at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.01 · 112 matches

Almería II away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.29 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Motril attack 1.76 + Almería II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.52

Almería II attack 1.51 + Motril defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Motril scores more
43%
level
25%
Almería II scores more
32%

Motril at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Motril will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Motril vs Almería II

Motril and Almería II drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on September 22, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Escribano Castilla in Motril.