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Almería II vs Motril — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Almería II
Almería II
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Motril
Motril
4/3/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 31Anexo Estadio de los Juegos del Mediterráneo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Almería II52%
×Draw25%
Motril23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Almería II
1.57
Motril
0.95

Almería II creates 65% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 112 away

creates per match

Almería II
2.09
Motril
1.18

allows per match

Almería II
0.72
Motril
1.05

finishing

Almería II+0.00on par
Motril+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almería II ↓

Motril →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Almería II or draw
77%
Almería II or Motril
75%
Draw or Motril
48%

Winning margin

Almería II wins by 2+
27%
Motril wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Almería II 1+ goals
79%
Almería II 2+ goals
46%
Almería II 3+ goals
21%
Motril 1+ goals
61%
Motril 2+ goals
25%
Motril 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Almería II (draw refunded)
69%
Motril (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almería II at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.72 · 76 matches

Motril away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.05 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almería II attack 2.09 + Motril defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.57

Motril attack 1.18 + Almería II defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Almería II scores more
52%
level
25%
Motril scores more
23%

Almería II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Almería II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Almería II 3–0 Motril

Almería II beat Motril 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on April 3, 2022.

The match was played at Anexo Estadio de los Juegos del Mediterráneo in Almería.