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Motor Lublin vs Radunia Stężyca — II Liga - East 2019

Motor Lublin
Motor Lublin
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Radunia Stężyca
Radunia Stężyca
5/13/2023II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 31Arena Lublin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Motor Lublin54%
×Draw23%
Radunia Stężyca23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Motor Lublin
1.81
Radunia Stężyca
1.10

Motor Lublin creates 65% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 61 away

creates per match

Motor Lublin
1.83
Radunia Stężyca
1.25

allows per match

Motor Lublin
0.96
Radunia Stężyca
1.79

finishing

Motor Lublin+0.00on par
Radunia Stężyca+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Motor Lublin ↓

Radunia Stężyca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Motor Lublin or draw
77%
Motor Lublin or Radunia Stężyca
77%
Draw or Radunia Stężyca
46%

Winning margin

Motor Lublin wins by 2+
30%
Radunia Stężyca wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Motor Lublin 1+ goals
84%
Motor Lublin 2+ goals
54%
Motor Lublin 3+ goals
27%
Radunia Stężyca 1+ goals
67%
Radunia Stężyca 2+ goals
30%
Radunia Stężyca 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Motor Lublin (draw refunded)
70%
Radunia Stężyca (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Motor Lublin at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.96 · 52 matches

Radunia Stężyca away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.79 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Motor Lublin attack 1.83 + Radunia Stężyca defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.81

Radunia Stężyca attack 1.25 + Motor Lublin defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Motor Lublin scores more
54%
level
23%
Radunia Stężyca scores more
23%

Motor Lublin at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Motor Lublin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Motor Lublin 3–1 Radunia Stężyca

Motor Lublin beat Radunia Stężyca 3-1 in II Liga - East on May 13, 2023.

The match was played at Arena Lublin in Lublin.