Motor Lublin vs Bytovia Bytów — II Liga - East 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 35+ matches
Motor Lublin56%
Bytovia Bytów22%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Motor Lublin creates 75% more chances
Season form · 52 home / 35 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over55
- Under45
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes55
- No45
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Motor Lublin ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Motor Lublin at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.96 · 52 matches
Bytovia Bytów away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.86 · 35 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Motor Lublin attack 1.83 + Bytovia Bytów defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.85
Bytovia Bytów attack 1.17 + Motor Lublin defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.06
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 56%?"
Motor Lublin at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 56% does not mean "Motor Lublin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Motor Lublin substitutes
Head to Head
Górnik Łęczna
Widzew Łódź
GKS KatowiceBytovia Bytów
Resovia Rzeszów
Stal Rzeszów
Garbarnia Kraków
Olimpia Elbląg
Znicz Pruszków
Pogoń Siedlce
Górnik Polkowice
Stargard Szczeciński
Lech Poznań II
SKRA Częstochowa
Stal Stalowa Wola
Elana Toruń
Legionovia Legionowo
Gryf WejherowoIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Motor Lublin host Bytovia Bytów on Wednesday, 18 November 2020 at 17:00. The match is part of the II Liga - East 2019/2020 season.
Match Recap: Motor Lublin vs Bytovia Bytów
Motor Lublin beat Bytovia Bytów 2-1 in II Liga - East on November 18, 2020.
Goals: D. Świderski (56'), R. Król (71' pen), P. Giel (74').
The match was played at Arena Lublin in Lublin.