Queen's University 7–2 Annagh United

Queen's University

FT

7 – 2

Annagh United

11/25/2017

Premier Intermediate League · Round 9Queen's University Malone Playing Fields

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Queen's University55%

×Draw20%

Annagh United25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Queen's UniversityExpected goals in this matchAnnagh United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.34

1.53

Queen's University

2.34

Annagh United

1.53

Queen's University creates 53% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 17 away

2.80

creates per match

1.76

1.30

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Queen's University

2.80

Annagh United

1.76

allows per match

Queen's University

1.30

Annagh United

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Queen's University+0.00on par

Annagh United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Queen's University ↓

Annagh United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Queen's University or draw

75%

Queen's University or Annagh United

80%

Draw or Annagh United

45%

Winning margin

Queen's University wins by 2+

34%

Annagh United wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Queen's University 1+ goals

90%

Queen's University 2+ goals

67%

Queen's University 3+ goals

41%

Annagh United 1+ goals

78%

Annagh United 2+ goals

45%

Annagh United 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Queen's University (draw refunded)

69%

Annagh United (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Queen's University at home — creates 2.80, concedes 1.30 · 20 matches

Annagh United away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Queen's University attack 2.80 + Annagh United defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.34

Annagh United attack 1.76 + Queen's University defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Queen's University scores more

55%

level

20%

Annagh United scores more

25%

Queen's University at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Queen's University will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff