Annagh United 0–4 Queen's University

Annagh United

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 0

Queen's University

4/11/2026

League #407 · Promotion Group - 36

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Annagh United42%

×Draw26%

Queen's University32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Annagh UnitedExpected goals in this matchQueen's University

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.23

Annagh United

1.44

Queen's University

1.23

Annagh United creates 17% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 8 away

1.89

creates per match

1.25

1.21

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Annagh United

1.89

Queen's University

1.25

allows per match

Annagh United

1.21

Queen's University

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Annagh United+0.00on par

Queen's University+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Annagh United ↓

Queen's University →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Annagh United or draw

68%

Annagh United or Queen's University

74%

Draw or Queen's University

58%

Winning margin

Annagh United wins by 2+

20%

Queen's University wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Annagh United 1+ goals

76%

Annagh United 2+ goals

42%

Annagh United 3+ goals

18%

Queen's University 1+ goals

71%

Queen's University 2+ goals

35%

Queen's University 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Annagh United (draw refunded)

57%

Queen's University (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Annagh United at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Queen's University away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Annagh United attack 1.89 + Queen's University defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.44

Queen's University attack 1.25 + Annagh United defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Annagh United scores more

42%

level

26%

Queen's University scores more

32%

Annagh United at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Annagh United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff