Lisburn Distillery 1–0 Dundela: Result & Stats

Lisburn Distillery

FT

1 – 0

Dundela

9/2/2017

League #561 · Round 4New Grosvenor Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Lisburn Distillery17%

×Draw22%

Dundela61%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lisburn DistilleryExpected goals in this matchDundela

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.90

1.91

Lisburn Distillery

0.90

Dundela

1.91

Dundela creates 112% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 5 away

1.00

creates per match

2.00

1.81

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

Lisburn Distillery

1.00

Dundela

2.00

allows per match

Lisburn Distillery

1.81

Dundela

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lisburn Distillery+0.00on par

Dundela+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lisburn Distillery ↓

Dundela →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–112%

0–211%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–24%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Lisburn Distillery or draw

39%

Lisburn Distillery or Dundela

78%

Draw or Dundela

83%

Winning margin

Lisburn Distillery wins by 2+

6%

Dundela wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

Lisburn Distillery 1+ goals

59%

Lisburn Distillery 2+ goals

23%

Lisburn Distillery 3+ goals

6%

Dundela 1+ goals

85%

Dundela 2+ goals

57%

Dundela 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Lisburn Distillery (draw refunded)

22%

Dundela (draw refunded)

78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lisburn Distillery at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.81 · 21 matches

Dundela away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lisburn Distillery attack 1.00 + Dundela defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.90

Dundela attack 2.00 + Lisburn Distillery defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Lisburn Distillery scores more

17%

level

22%

Dundela scores more

61%

Dundela at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Dundela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff