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Barki Tajik vs CSKA Pomir — Vysshaya Liga 2014

Barki Tajik
Barki Tajik
FT
0 – 0
CSKA Pomir
CSKA Pomir
10/14/2014Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 12Iskusstvennoe pole Tsentral'nogo respublikansogo stadiona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Barki Tajik36%
×Draw31%
CSKA Pomir33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barki Tajik
1.02
CSKA Pomir
0.97

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 39 away

creates per match

Barki Tajik
1.13
CSKA Pomir
1.03

allows per match

Barki Tajik
0.90
CSKA Pomir
0.92

finishing

Barki Tajik+0.00on par
CSKA Pomir+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barki Tajik ↓

CSKA Pomir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Barki Tajik or draw
67%
Barki Tajik or CSKA Pomir
69%
Draw or CSKA Pomir
64%

Winning margin

Barki Tajik wins by 2+
14%
CSKA Pomir wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Barki Tajik 1+ goals
64%
Barki Tajik 2+ goals
27%
Barki Tajik 3+ goals
8%
CSKA Pomir 1+ goals
62%
CSKA Pomir 2+ goals
25%
CSKA Pomir 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Barki Tajik (draw refunded)
52%
CSKA Pomir (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barki Tajik at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.90 · 31 matches

CSKA Pomir away — creates 1.03, concedes 0.92 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barki Tajik attack 1.13 + CSKA Pomir defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.02

CSKA Pomir attack 1.03 + Barki Tajik defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Barki Tajik scores more
36%
level
31%
CSKA Pomir scores more
33%

Barki Tajik at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Barki Tajik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Barki Tajik 0 – 0 CSKA Pomir

Barki Tajik and CSKA Pomir drew 0-0 in Vysshaya Liga on October 14, 2014.

The match was played at Iskusstvennoe pole Tsentral'nogo respublikansogo stadiona in Dushanbe.