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CSKA Pomir vs Barki Tajik — Vysshaya Liga 2025

CSKA Pomir
CSKA Pomir
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Barki Tajik
Barki Tajik
M. Odilov 79' (pen)
V. Safarov 65'
I. Kholov 4'
M. Gafurov 31'
B. Bilol 14'
6/22/2024Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 11TALCO Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

CSKA Pomir49%
×Draw24%
Barki Tajik27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA Pomir
1.68
Barki Tajik
1.19

CSKA Pomir creates 41% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 28 away

creates per match

CSKA Pomir
2.00
Barki Tajik
1.25

allows per match

CSKA Pomir
1.14
Barki Tajik
1.36

finishing

CSKA Pomir+0.00on par
Barki Tajik+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA Pomir ↓

Barki Tajik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

CSKA Pomir or draw
73%
CSKA Pomir or Barki Tajik
76%
Draw or Barki Tajik
51%

Winning margin

CSKA Pomir wins by 2+
26%
Barki Tajik wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

CSKA Pomir 1+ goals
81%
CSKA Pomir 2+ goals
50%
CSKA Pomir 3+ goals
24%
Barki Tajik 1+ goals
70%
Barki Tajik 2+ goals
33%
Barki Tajik 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

CSKA Pomir (draw refunded)
64%
Barki Tajik (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA Pomir at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.14 · 37 matches

Barki Tajik away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.36 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA Pomir attack 2.00 + Barki Tajik defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.68

Barki Tajik attack 1.25 + CSKA Pomir defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

CSKA Pomir scores more
49%
level
24%
Barki Tajik scores more
27%

CSKA Pomir at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "CSKA Pomir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
I. Kholov
14'
B. Bilol
31'
M. Gafurov
65'
V. Safarov
79'
M. OdilovPenalty
90'
J. Sharipov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CSKA Pomir vs Barki Tajik

CSKA Pomir beat Barki Tajik 3-2 in Vysshaya Liga on June 22, 2024.

Goals: I. Kholov (4'), B. Bilol (14'), M. Gafurov (31'), V. Safarov (65'), M. Odilov (79' pen).

The match was played at TALCO Arena in Tursunzoda.