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Moto Club vs Tuntum — League #608 2026

Moto Club
Moto Club
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Tuntum
Tuntum
Joarlyson 89'
Wanderson Gotinha 25'
R. Vieira 48'
Robinho 5'
2/1/2026League #608League #608 · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Moto Club33%
×Draw29%
Tuntum38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moto Club
1.08
Tuntum
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Moto Club
0.50
Tuntum
1.33

allows per match

Moto Club
1.00
Tuntum
1.67

finishing

Moto Club+0.00on par
Tuntum+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 61Over: 3961%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 54Yes: 4654%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moto Club ↓

Tuntum →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Moto Club or draw
62%
Moto Club or Tuntum
71%
Draw or Tuntum
67%

Winning margin

Moto Club wins by 2+
13%
Tuntum wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Moto Club 1+ goals
66%
Moto Club 2+ goals
29%
Moto Club 3+ goals
10%
Tuntum 1+ goals
69%
Tuntum 2+ goals
33%
Tuntum 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Moto Club (draw refunded)
47%
Tuntum (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moto Club at home — creates 0.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Tuntum away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moto Club attack 0.50 + Tuntum defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.08

Tuntum attack 1.33 + Moto Club defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Moto Club scores more
33%
level
29%
Tuntum scores more
38%

Tuntum at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Tuntum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
Robinho
25'
Wanderson Gotinha
48'
R. Vieira
89'
Joarlyson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Moto Club vs Tuntum

Moto Club and Tuntum drew 2-2 in League #608 on February 1, 2026.

Goals: Robinho (5'), Wanderson Gotinha (25'), R. Vieira (48'), Joarlyson (89').