Moto Club 2–0 Juventude MA: Result & Stats

Moto Club

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Juventude MA

10/31/2020

Serie D · Round 10Estádio Municipal Nhozinho Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Moto Club47%

×Draw27%

Juventude MA26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Moto ClubExpected goals in this matchJuventude MA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.98

Moto Club

1.40

Juventude MA

0.98

Moto Club creates 43% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 24 away

1.66

creates per match

1.00

0.96

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Moto Club

1.66

Juventude MA

1.00

allows per match

Moto Club

0.96

Juventude MA

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Moto Club+0.00on par

Juventude MA+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moto Club ↓

Juventude MA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Moto Club or draw

74%

Moto Club or Juventude MA

73%

Draw or Juventude MA

53%

Winning margin

Moto Club wins by 2+

22%

Juventude MA wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Moto Club 1+ goals

75%

Moto Club 2+ goals

41%

Moto Club 3+ goals

17%

Juventude MA 1+ goals

62%

Juventude MA 2+ goals

26%

Juventude MA 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Moto Club (draw refunded)

64%

Juventude MA (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moto Club at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.96 · 47 matches

Juventude MA away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.13 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moto Club attack 1.66 + Juventude MA defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.40

Juventude MA attack 1.00 + Moto Club defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Moto Club scores more

47%

level

27%

Juventude MA scores more

26%

Moto Club at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Moto Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff