Moto Club 3–0 4 de Julho: Result & Stats | Serie D

Moto Club

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

4 de Julho

4/24/2022

Serie D · 1st Phase - 2Estádio Municipal Nhozinho Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Moto Club50%

×Draw28%

4 de Julho22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Moto ClubExpected goals in this match4 de Julho

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.77

Moto Club

1.33

4 de Julho

0.77

Moto Club creates 73% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 19 away

1.66

creates per match

0.58

0.96

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Moto Club

1.66

4 de Julho

0.58

allows per match

Moto Club

0.96

4 de Julho

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Moto Club+0.00on par

4 de Julho+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moto Club ↓

4 de Julho →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Moto Club or draw

78%

Moto Club or 4 de Julho

72%

Draw or 4 de Julho

50%

Winning margin

Moto Club wins by 2+

24%

4 de Julho wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Moto Club 1+ goals

74%

Moto Club 2+ goals

38%

Moto Club 3+ goals

15%

4 de Julho 1+ goals

54%

4 de Julho 2+ goals

18%

4 de Julho 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Moto Club (draw refunded)

70%

4 de Julho (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moto Club at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.96 · 47 matches

4 de Julho away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moto Club attack 1.66 + 4 de Julho defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

4 de Julho attack 0.58 + Moto Club defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Moto Club scores more

50%

level

28%

4 de Julho scores more

22%

Moto Club at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Moto Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff