Motherwell 4–0 Inverness CT: Result & Stats

Motherwell

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Inverness CT

8/31/2022

League Cup · 2nd RoundFir Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Motherwell65%

×Draw19%

Inverness CT16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MotherwellExpected goals in this matchInverness CT

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

1.06

Motherwell

2.33

Inverness CT

1.06

Motherwell creates 120% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 15 away

2.33

creates per match

1.13

1.00

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Motherwell

2.33

Inverness CT

1.13

allows per match

Motherwell

1.00

Inverness CT

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Motherwell+0.00on par

Inverness CT+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Motherwell ↓

Inverness CT →

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Motherwell or draw

84%

Motherwell or Inverness CT

81%

Draw or Inverness CT

35%

Winning margin

Motherwell wins by 2+

43%

Inverness CT wins by 2+

Team goals

Motherwell 1+ goals

90%

Motherwell 2+ goals

67%

Motherwell 3+ goals

41%

Inverness CT 1+ goals

65%

Inverness CT 2+ goals

29%

Inverness CT 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Motherwell (draw refunded)

80%

Inverness CT (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Motherwell at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 18 matches

Inverness CT away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Motherwell attack 2.33 + Inverness CT defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.33

Inverness CT attack 1.13 + Motherwell defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 65%?"

Motherwell scores more

65%

level

19%

Inverness CT scores more

16%

Motherwell at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Motherwell will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff