Motherwell 3–1 Alloa Athletic: Result & Stats

Motherwell

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Alloa Athletic

1/20/2024

FA Cup · 4th RoundFir Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Motherwell46%

×Draw24%

Alloa Athletic30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MotherwellExpected goals in this matchAlloa Athletic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.33

Motherwell

1.71

Alloa Athletic

1.33

Motherwell creates 29% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

1.75

creates per match

1.67

1.00

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Motherwell

1.75

Alloa Athletic

1.67

allows per match

Motherwell

1.00

Alloa Athletic

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Motherwell+0.00on par

Alloa Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Motherwell ↓

Alloa Athletic →

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Motherwell or draw

70%

Motherwell or Alloa Athletic

76%

Draw or Alloa Athletic

54%

Winning margin

Motherwell wins by 2+

25%

Alloa Athletic wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Motherwell 1+ goals

82%

Motherwell 2+ goals

51%

Motherwell 3+ goals

24%

Alloa Athletic 1+ goals

74%

Alloa Athletic 2+ goals

38%

Alloa Athletic 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Motherwell (draw refunded)

61%

Alloa Athletic (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Motherwell at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Alloa Athletic away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Motherwell attack 1.75 + Alloa Athletic defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.71

Alloa Athletic attack 1.67 + Motherwell defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Motherwell scores more

46%

level

24%

Alloa Athletic scores more

30%

Motherwell at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Motherwell will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff