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Motema Pembe vs Panda B5 — Ligue 1 2019

Motema Pembe
Motema Pembe
CANC
14:30
Panda B5
Panda B5
5/6/2023Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 10Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Motema Pembe63%
×Draw24%
Panda B514%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Motema Pembe
1.69
Panda B5
0.64

Motema Pembe creates 164% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 52 away

creates per match

Motema Pembe
1.41
Panda B5
0.40

allows per match

Motema Pembe
0.88
Panda B5
1.98

finishing

Motema Pembe+0.00on par
Panda B5+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Motema Pembe ↓

Panda B5 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Motema Pembe or draw
86%
Motema Pembe or Panda B5
76%
Draw or Panda B5
37%

Winning margin

Motema Pembe wins by 2+
36%
Panda B5 wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Motema Pembe 1+ goals
82%
Motema Pembe 2+ goals
50%
Motema Pembe 3+ goals
24%
Panda B5 1+ goals
47%
Panda B5 2+ goals
14%
Panda B5 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Motema Pembe (draw refunded)
82%
Panda B5 (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Motema Pembe at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.88 · 78 matches

Panda B5 away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.98 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Motema Pembe attack 1.41 + Panda B5 defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.69

Panda B5 attack 0.40 + Motema Pembe defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Motema Pembe scores more
63%
level
24%
Panda B5 scores more
14%

Motema Pembe at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Motema Pembe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Motema Pembe host Panda B5

May 6, 2023: Motema Pembe take on Panda B5 in Ligue 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Motema Pembe host Panda B5 at Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.