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Motema Pembe vs Nyuki — Ligue 1 2019

Motema Pembe
Motema Pembe
FT
5 – 1
Nyuki
Nyuki
10/3/2019Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 6Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Motema Pembe78%
×Draw15%
Nyuki7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Motema Pembe
2.37
Nyuki
0.55

Motema Pembe creates 331% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 9 away

creates per match

Motema Pembe
1.41
Nyuki
0.22

allows per match

Motema Pembe
0.88
Nyuki
3.33

finishing

Motema Pembe+0.00on par
Nyuki+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Motema Pembe ↓

Nyuki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–17%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Motema Pembe or draw
93%
Motema Pembe or Nyuki
85%
Draw or Nyuki
22%

Winning margin

Motema Pembe wins by 2+
54%
Nyuki wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Motema Pembe 1+ goals
91%
Motema Pembe 2+ goals
68%
Motema Pembe 3+ goals
42%
Nyuki 1+ goals
42%
Nyuki 2+ goals
11%
Nyuki 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Motema Pembe (draw refunded)
92%
Nyuki (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Motema Pembe at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.88 · 78 matches

Nyuki away — creates 0.22, concedes 3.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Motema Pembe attack 1.41 + Nyuki defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.37

Nyuki attack 0.22 + Motema Pembe defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Motema Pembe scores more
78%
level
15%
Nyuki scores more
7%

Motema Pembe at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Motema Pembe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Motema Pembe 5 – 1 Nyuki

Motema Pembe beat Nyuki 5-1 in Ligue 1 on October 3, 2019.

The match was played at Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte in Kinshasa.