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Motema Pembe vs New Jack — Ligue 1 2019

Motema Pembe
Motema Pembe
FT
2 – 0
New Jack
New Jack
4/6/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 19Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Motema Pembe51%
×Draw28%
New Jack20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Motema Pembe
1.34
New Jack
0.73

Motema Pembe creates 84% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 22 away

creates per match

Motema Pembe
1.41
New Jack
0.59

allows per match

Motema Pembe
0.88
New Jack
1.27

finishing

Motema Pembe+0.00on par
New Jack+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Motema Pembe ↓

New Jack →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Motema Pembe or draw
80%
Motema Pembe or New Jack
72%
Draw or New Jack
49%

Winning margin

Motema Pembe wins by 2+
25%
New Jack wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Motema Pembe 1+ goals
74%
Motema Pembe 2+ goals
39%
Motema Pembe 3+ goals
15%
New Jack 1+ goals
52%
New Jack 2+ goals
17%
New Jack 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Motema Pembe (draw refunded)
72%
New Jack (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Motema Pembe at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.88 · 78 matches

New Jack away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.27 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Motema Pembe attack 1.41 + New Jack defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.34

New Jack attack 0.59 + Motema Pembe defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Motema Pembe scores more
51%
level
28%
New Jack scores more
20%

Motema Pembe at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Motema Pembe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Motema Pembe 2 – 0 New Jack

Motema Pembe beat New Jack 2-0 in Ligue 1 on April 6, 2025.

The match was played at Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte in Kinshasa.