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Motema Pembe vs Don Bosco — Ligue 1 2019

Motema Pembe
Motema Pembe
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Don Bosco
Don Bosco
1/29/2022Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 15Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Motema Pembe46%
×Draw29%
Don Bosco25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Motema Pembe
1.28
Don Bosco
0.86

Motema Pembe creates 49% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 96 away

creates per match

Motema Pembe
1.41
Don Bosco
0.85

allows per match

Motema Pembe
0.88
Don Bosco
1.16

finishing

Motema Pembe+0.00on par
Don Bosco+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Motema Pembe ↓

Don Bosco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Motema Pembe or draw
75%
Motema Pembe or Don Bosco
71%
Draw or Don Bosco
54%

Winning margin

Motema Pembe wins by 2+
21%
Don Bosco wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Motema Pembe 1+ goals
72%
Motema Pembe 2+ goals
37%
Motema Pembe 3+ goals
14%
Don Bosco 1+ goals
58%
Don Bosco 2+ goals
21%
Don Bosco 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Motema Pembe (draw refunded)
65%
Don Bosco (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Motema Pembe at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.88 · 78 matches

Don Bosco away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.16 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Motema Pembe attack 1.41 + Don Bosco defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.28

Don Bosco attack 0.85 + Motema Pembe defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Motema Pembe scores more
46%
level
29%
Don Bosco scores more
25%

Motema Pembe at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Motema Pembe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Motema Pembe vs Don Bosco

Motema Pembe and Don Bosco drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on January 29, 2022.

The match was played at Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte in Kinshasa.