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Motala vs Säffle SK — Division 2 - Norra Götaland 2019

Motala
Motala
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Säffle SK
Säffle SK
G. Haidar 90', 2'
4/6/2024Division 2 - Norra GötalandDivision 2 - Norra Götaland · Norra Götaland - 2Motala Idrottspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Motala63%
×Draw20%
Säffle SK17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Motala
2.22
Säffle SK
1.08

Motala creates 106% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 26 away

creates per match

Motala
2.21
Säffle SK
0.81

allows per match

Motala
1.36
Säffle SK
2.23

finishing

Motala+0.00on par
Säffle SK+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Motala ↓

Säffle SK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Motala or draw
83%
Motala or Säffle SK
80%
Draw or Säffle SK
37%

Winning margin

Motala wins by 2+
40%
Säffle SK wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Motala 1+ goals
89%
Motala 2+ goals
65%
Motala 3+ goals
38%
Säffle SK 1+ goals
66%
Säffle SK 2+ goals
29%
Säffle SK 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Motala (draw refunded)
78%
Säffle SK (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Motala at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.36 · 33 matches

Säffle SK away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.23 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Motala attack 2.21 + Säffle SK defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.22

Säffle SK attack 0.81 + Motala defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Motala scores more
63%
level
20%
Säffle SK scores more
17%

Motala at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Motala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
G. Haidar
89'
D. Lubishtani
90'
G. Haidar

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Norra Götaland: Motala 0–2 Säffle SK

Säffle SK beat Motala 2-0 in Division 2 - Norra Götaland on April 6, 2024.

Goals: G. Haidar (2', 90').

The match was played at Motala Idrottspark in Motala.