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Motala vs IFK Eskilstuna — Division 2 - Södra Svealand 2019

Motala
Motala
FT
3 – 0
IFK Eskilstuna
IFK Eskilstuna
11/28/2021Division 2 - Södra SvealandDivision 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 9Motala Idrottspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Motala67%
×Draw18%
IFK Eskilstuna15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Motala
2.50
IFK Eskilstuna
1.11

Motala creates 125% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 60 away

creates per match

Motala
2.57
IFK Eskilstuna
1.43

allows per match

Motala
0.79
IFK Eskilstuna
2.42

finishing

Motala+0.00on par
IFK Eskilstuna+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Motala ↓

IFK Eskilstuna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Motala or draw
85%
Motala or IFK Eskilstuna
82%
Draw or IFK Eskilstuna
33%

Winning margin

Motala wins by 2+
45%
IFK Eskilstuna wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Motala 1+ goals
92%
Motala 2+ goals
71%
Motala 3+ goals
45%
IFK Eskilstuna 1+ goals
67%
IFK Eskilstuna 2+ goals
30%
IFK Eskilstuna 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Motala (draw refunded)
82%
IFK Eskilstuna (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Motala at home — creates 2.57, concedes 0.79 · 28 matches

IFK Eskilstuna away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.42 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Motala attack 2.57 + IFK Eskilstuna defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.50

IFK Eskilstuna attack 1.43 + Motala defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Motala scores more
67%
level
18%
IFK Eskilstuna scores more
15%

Motala at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Motala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Motala vs IFK Eskilstuna

Motala beat IFK Eskilstuna 3-0 in Division 2 - Södra Svealand on November 28, 2021.

The match was played at Motala Idrottspark in Motala.