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Mosul vs Erbil — Iraqi League 2025

Mosul
Mosul
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Erbil
Erbil
S. Temirov 62' (pen), 22'
1/8/2026Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Mosul26%
×Draw26%
Erbil49%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mosul
1.04
Erbil
1.54

Erbil creates 48% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 21 away

creates per match

Mosul
1.12
Erbil
1.62

allows per match

Mosul
1.47
Erbil
0.95

finishing

Mosul+0.00on par
Erbil+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mosul ↓

Erbil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Mosul or draw
51%
Mosul or Erbil
74%
Draw or Erbil
74%

Winning margin

Mosul wins by 2+
9%
Erbil wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Mosul 1+ goals
65%
Mosul 2+ goals
28%
Mosul 3+ goals
9%
Erbil 1+ goals
79%
Erbil 2+ goals
45%
Erbil 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Mosul (draw refunded)
34%
Erbil (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mosul at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

Erbil away — creates 1.62, concedes 0.95 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mosul attack 1.12 + Erbil defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.04

Erbil attack 1.62 + Mosul defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Mosul scores more
26%
level
26%
Erbil scores more
49%

Erbil at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Erbil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
S. Temirov
62'
S. TemirovPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mosul vs Erbil

Erbil beat Mosul 2-0 in Iraqi League on January 8, 2026.

Goals: S. Temirov (22', 62' pen).