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Mosul vs Diyala — Iraqi League 2025

Mosul
Mosul
AWD
0 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Diyala
Diyala
A. Al Dali 34' (pen)
R. Foning 22'
J. Medranda 62' (OG)
A. Sfaxi 10' (pen)
10/5/2025Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Mosul36%
×Draw28%
Diyala36%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mosul
1.16
Diyala
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 31 away

creates per match

Mosul
1.12
Diyala
0.87

allows per match

Mosul
1.47
Diyala
1.19

finishing

Mosul+0.00on par
Diyala+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mosul ↓

Diyala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Mosul or draw
64%
Mosul or Diyala
72%
Draw or Diyala
64%

Winning margin

Mosul wins by 2+
15%
Diyala wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Mosul 1+ goals
69%
Mosul 2+ goals
32%
Mosul 3+ goals
11%
Diyala 1+ goals
69%
Diyala 2+ goals
33%
Diyala 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Mosul (draw refunded)
50%
Diyala (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mosul at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

Diyala away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.19 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mosul attack 1.12 + Diyala defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.16

Diyala attack 0.87 + Mosul defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Mosul scores more
36%
level
28%
Diyala scores more
36%

Mosul at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Mosul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
A. SfaxiPenalty
22'
R. Foning
34'
A. Al DaliPenalty
62'
J. MedrandaOwn goal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Mosul host Diyala

October 5, 2025: Mosul take on Diyala in Iraqi League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.