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Mosul vs Al Najaf — Iraqi League 2025

Mosul
Mosul
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Al Najaf
Al Najaf
9/26/2025Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 3Dohuk Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Mosul41%
×Draw27%
Al Najaf32%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mosul
1.31
Al Najaf
1.13

Mosul creates 16% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 36 away

creates per match

Mosul
1.12
Al Najaf
0.78

allows per match

Mosul
1.47
Al Najaf
1.50

finishing

Mosul+0.00on par
Al Najaf+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mosul ↓

Al Najaf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Mosul or draw
68%
Mosul or Al Najaf
73%
Draw or Al Najaf
59%

Winning margin

Mosul wins by 2+
18%
Al Najaf wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Mosul 1+ goals
73%
Mosul 2+ goals
38%
Mosul 3+ goals
14%
Al Najaf 1+ goals
68%
Al Najaf 2+ goals
31%
Al Najaf 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Mosul (draw refunded)
56%
Al Najaf (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mosul at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

Al Najaf away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.50 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mosul attack 1.12 + Al Najaf defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.31

Al Najaf attack 0.78 + Mosul defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mosul scores more
41%
level
27%
Al Najaf scores more
32%

Mosul at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mosul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mosul vs Al Najaf

Mosul beat Al Najaf 2-1 in Iraqi League on September 26, 2025.

The match was played at Dohuk Stadium in Dohuk.