Móstoles 3–1 Trival Valderas: Result & Stats

Móstoles

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Trival Valderas

1/28/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 18Estadio Municipal de El Soto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Móstoles48%

×Draw26%

Trival Valderas25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MóstolesExpected goals in this matchTrival Valderas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.99

Móstoles

1.48

Trival Valderas

0.99

Móstoles creates 49% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 115 away

1.67

creates per match

0.97

1.01

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Móstoles

1.67

Trival Valderas

0.97

allows per match

Móstoles

1.01

Trival Valderas

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Móstoles+0.00on par

Trival Valderas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Móstoles ↓

Trival Valderas →

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Móstoles or draw

75%

Móstoles or Trival Valderas

74%

Draw or Trival Valderas

52%

Winning margin

Móstoles wins by 2+

24%

Trival Valderas wins by 2+

Team goals

Móstoles 1+ goals

77%

Móstoles 2+ goals

43%

Móstoles 3+ goals

19%

Trival Valderas 1+ goals

63%

Trival Valderas 2+ goals

26%

Trival Valderas 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Móstoles (draw refunded)

66%

Trival Valderas (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Móstoles at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.01 · 76 matches

Trival Valderas away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.30 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Móstoles attack 1.67 + Trival Valderas defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.48

Trival Valderas attack 0.97 + Móstoles defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Móstoles scores more

48%

level

26%

Trival Valderas scores more

25%

Móstoles at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Móstoles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff