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Móstoles vs Tres Cantos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Móstoles
Móstoles
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Tres Cantos
Tres Cantos
2/25/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 22Estadio Municipal de El Soto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Móstoles53%
×Draw24%
Tres Cantos23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Móstoles
1.71
Tres Cantos
1.02

Móstoles creates 68% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 71 away

creates per match

Móstoles
1.67
Tres Cantos
1.03

allows per match

Móstoles
1.01
Tres Cantos
1.75

finishing

Móstoles+0.00on par
Tres Cantos+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Móstoles ↓

Tres Cantos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Móstoles or draw
77%
Móstoles or Tres Cantos
76%
Draw or Tres Cantos
47%

Winning margin

Móstoles wins by 2+
29%
Tres Cantos wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Móstoles 1+ goals
82%
Móstoles 2+ goals
51%
Móstoles 3+ goals
24%
Tres Cantos 1+ goals
64%
Tres Cantos 2+ goals
27%
Tres Cantos 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Móstoles (draw refunded)
70%
Tres Cantos (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Móstoles at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.01 · 76 matches

Tres Cantos away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.75 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Móstoles attack 1.67 + Tres Cantos defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.71

Tres Cantos attack 1.03 + Móstoles defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Móstoles scores more
53%
level
24%
Tres Cantos scores more
23%

Móstoles at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Móstoles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Móstoles vs Tres Cantos

Móstoles beat Tres Cantos 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on February 25, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de El Soto in Móstoles.