Móstoles 1–0 RSD Alcalá: Result & Stats

Móstoles

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

RSD Alcalá

4/23/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 30Estadio Municipal de El Soto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Móstoles44%

×Draw26%

RSD Alcalá29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MóstolesExpected goals in this matchRSD Alcalá

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.12

Móstoles

1.44

RSD Alcalá

1.12

Móstoles creates 29% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 99 away

1.67

creates per match

1.23

1.01

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Móstoles

1.67

RSD Alcalá

1.23

allows per match

Móstoles

1.01

RSD Alcalá

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Móstoles+0.00on par

RSD Alcalá+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Móstoles ↓

RSD Alcalá →

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Móstoles or draw

71%

Móstoles or RSD Alcalá

74%

Draw or RSD Alcalá

56%

Winning margin

Móstoles wins by 2+

21%

RSD Alcalá wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Móstoles 1+ goals

76%

Móstoles 2+ goals

42%

Móstoles 3+ goals

18%

RSD Alcalá 1+ goals

67%

RSD Alcalá 2+ goals

31%

RSD Alcalá 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Móstoles (draw refunded)

60%

RSD Alcalá (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Móstoles at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.01 · 76 matches

RSD Alcalá away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.20 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Móstoles attack 1.67 + RSD Alcalá defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.44

RSD Alcalá attack 1.23 + Móstoles defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Móstoles scores more

44%

level

26%

RSD Alcalá scores more

29%

Móstoles at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Móstoles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff