Móstoles 0–3 Leganés II: Result & Stats

Móstoles

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Leganés II

4/28/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 31Estadio Municipal de El Soto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Móstoles39%

×Draw25%

Leganés II37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MóstolesExpected goals in this matchLeganés II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.45

Móstoles

1.50

Leganés II

1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 79 away

1.67

creates per match

1.89

1.01

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Móstoles

1.67

Leganés II

1.89

allows per match

Móstoles

1.01

Leganés II

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Móstoles+0.00on par

Leganés II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Móstoles ↓

Leganés II →

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Móstoles or draw

63%

Móstoles or Leganés II

75%

Draw or Leganés II

61%

Winning margin

Móstoles wins by 2+

19%

Leganés II wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Móstoles 1+ goals

78%

Móstoles 2+ goals

44%

Móstoles 3+ goals

19%

Leganés II 1+ goals

77%

Leganés II 2+ goals

42%

Leganés II 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Móstoles (draw refunded)

51%

Leganés II (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Móstoles at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.01 · 76 matches

Leganés II away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.32 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Móstoles attack 1.67 + Leganés II defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.50

Leganés II attack 1.89 + Móstoles defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Móstoles scores more

39%

level

25%

Leganés II scores more

37%

Móstoles at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Móstoles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff