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Móstoles vs Las Rozas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Móstoles
Móstoles
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Las Rozas
Las Rozas
1/21/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 17Estadio Municipal de El Soto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Móstoles44%
×Draw26%
Las Rozas30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Móstoles
1.41
Las Rozas
1.12

Móstoles creates 26% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 88 away

creates per match

Móstoles
1.67
Las Rozas
1.23

allows per match

Móstoles
1.01
Las Rozas
1.15

finishing

Móstoles+0.00on par
Las Rozas+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Móstoles ↓

Las Rozas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Móstoles or draw
70%
Móstoles or Las Rozas
74%
Draw or Las Rozas
56%

Winning margin

Móstoles wins by 2+
21%
Las Rozas wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Móstoles 1+ goals
76%
Móstoles 2+ goals
41%
Móstoles 3+ goals
17%
Las Rozas 1+ goals
67%
Las Rozas 2+ goals
31%
Las Rozas 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Móstoles (draw refunded)
59%
Las Rozas (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Móstoles at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.01 · 76 matches

Las Rozas away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.15 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Móstoles attack 1.67 + Las Rozas defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.41

Las Rozas attack 1.23 + Móstoles defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Móstoles scores more
44%
level
26%
Las Rozas scores more
30%

Móstoles at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Móstoles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Móstoles vs Las Rozas

Móstoles and Las Rozas drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on January 21, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de El Soto in Móstoles.