Móstoles 1–2 Flat Earth: Result & Stats

Móstoles

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Flat Earth

2/2/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 23Estadio Municipal de El Soto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Móstoles49%

×Draw27%

Flat Earth24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MóstolesExpected goals in this matchFlat Earth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.92

Móstoles

1.44

Flat Earth

0.92

Móstoles creates 57% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 28 away

1.67

creates per match

0.82

1.01

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Móstoles

1.67

Flat Earth

0.82

allows per match

Móstoles

1.01

Flat Earth

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Móstoles+0.00on par

Flat Earth+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Móstoles ↓

Flat Earth →

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Móstoles or draw

76%

Móstoles or Flat Earth

73%

Draw or Flat Earth

51%

Winning margin

Móstoles wins by 2+

24%

Flat Earth wins by 2+

Team goals

Móstoles 1+ goals

76%

Móstoles 2+ goals

42%

Móstoles 3+ goals

18%

Flat Earth 1+ goals

60%

Flat Earth 2+ goals

23%

Flat Earth 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Móstoles (draw refunded)

67%

Flat Earth (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Móstoles at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.01 · 76 matches

Flat Earth away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.21 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Móstoles attack 1.67 + Flat Earth defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.44

Flat Earth attack 0.82 + Móstoles defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Móstoles scores more

49%

level

27%

Flat Earth scores more

24%

Móstoles at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Móstoles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff