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Móstoles vs El Álamo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Móstoles
Móstoles
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
El Álamo
El Álamo
12/6/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 8Estadio Municipal de El Soto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Móstoles57%
×Draw24%
El Álamo20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Móstoles
1.75
El Álamo
0.93

Móstoles creates 88% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 47 away

creates per match

Móstoles
1.67
El Álamo
0.85

allows per match

Móstoles
1.01
El Álamo
1.83

finishing

Móstoles+0.00on par
El Álamo+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Móstoles ↓

El Álamo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Móstoles or draw
80%
Móstoles or El Álamo
76%
Draw or El Álamo
43%

Winning margin

Móstoles wins by 2+
32%
El Álamo wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Móstoles 1+ goals
83%
Móstoles 2+ goals
52%
Móstoles 3+ goals
25%
El Álamo 1+ goals
61%
El Álamo 2+ goals
24%
El Álamo 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Móstoles (draw refunded)
74%
El Álamo (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Móstoles at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.01 · 76 matches

El Álamo away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.83 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Móstoles attack 1.67 + El Álamo defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.75

El Álamo attack 0.85 + Móstoles defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Móstoles scores more
57%
level
24%
El Álamo scores more
20%

Móstoles at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Móstoles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Móstoles 1–0 El Álamo

Móstoles beat El Álamo 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on December 6, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de El Soto in Móstoles.