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Móstoles vs Alcorcón II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Móstoles
Móstoles
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Alcorcón II
Alcorcón II
3/14/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 20Estadio Municipal de El Soto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Móstoles43%
×Draw27%
Alcorcón II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Móstoles
1.39
Alcorcón II
1.14

Móstoles creates 22% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 97 away

creates per match

Móstoles
1.67
Alcorcón II
1.26

allows per match

Móstoles
1.01
Alcorcón II
1.10

finishing

Móstoles+0.00on par
Alcorcón II+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Móstoles ↓

Alcorcón II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Móstoles or draw
69%
Móstoles or Alcorcón II
73%
Draw or Alcorcón II
57%

Winning margin

Móstoles wins by 2+
20%
Alcorcón II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Móstoles 1+ goals
75%
Móstoles 2+ goals
40%
Móstoles 3+ goals
16%
Alcorcón II 1+ goals
68%
Alcorcón II 2+ goals
32%
Alcorcón II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Móstoles (draw refunded)
58%
Alcorcón II (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Móstoles at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.01 · 76 matches

Alcorcón II away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.10 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Móstoles attack 1.67 + Alcorcón II defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.39

Alcorcón II attack 1.26 + Móstoles defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Móstoles scores more
43%
level
27%
Alcorcón II scores more
31%

Móstoles at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Móstoles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Móstoles 2–1 Alcorcón II

Móstoles beat Alcorcón II 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on March 14, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de El Soto in Móstoles.