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Móstoles CF vs RSD Alcalá — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Móstoles CF
Móstoles CF
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
RSD Alcalá
RSD Alcalá
5/16/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 2nd Phase - 7Polideportivo Andrés Torrejón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Móstoles CF27%
×Draw28%
RSD Alcalá45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Móstoles CF
0.94
RSD Alcalá
1.30

RSD Alcalá creates 38% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 99 away

creates per match

Móstoles CF
0.69
RSD Alcalá
1.23

allows per match

Móstoles CF
1.38
RSD Alcalá
1.20

finishing

Móstoles CF+0.00on par
RSD Alcalá+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Móstoles CF ↓

RSD Alcalá →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Móstoles CF or draw
55%
Móstoles CF or RSD Alcalá
72%
Draw or RSD Alcalá
73%

Winning margin

Móstoles CF wins by 2+
9%
RSD Alcalá wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Móstoles CF 1+ goals
61%
Móstoles CF 2+ goals
24%
Móstoles CF 3+ goals
7%
RSD Alcalá 1+ goals
73%
RSD Alcalá 2+ goals
37%
RSD Alcalá 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Móstoles CF (draw refunded)
38%
RSD Alcalá (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Móstoles CF at home — creates 0.69, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

RSD Alcalá away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.20 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Móstoles CF attack 0.69 + RSD Alcalá defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.94

RSD Alcalá attack 1.23 + Móstoles CF defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Móstoles CF scores more
27%
level
28%
RSD Alcalá scores more
45%

RSD Alcalá at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "RSD Alcalá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Móstoles CF vs RSD Alcalá

RSD Alcalá beat Móstoles CF 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on May 16, 2021.

The match was played at Polideportivo Andrés Torrejón in Móstoles.