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Móstoles CF vs El Álamo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Móstoles CF
Móstoles CF
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
El Álamo
El Álamo
10/25/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 2Estadio Municipal de El Soto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Móstoles CF40%
×Draw28%
El Álamo32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Móstoles CF
1.26
El Álamo
1.11

Móstoles CF creates 14% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 47 away

creates per match

Móstoles CF
0.69
El Álamo
0.85

allows per match

Móstoles CF
1.38
El Álamo
1.83

finishing

Móstoles CF+0.00on par
El Álamo+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Móstoles CF ↓

El Álamo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Móstoles CF or draw
68%
Móstoles CF or El Álamo
72%
Draw or El Álamo
60%

Winning margin

Móstoles CF wins by 2+
18%
El Álamo wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Móstoles CF 1+ goals
72%
Móstoles CF 2+ goals
36%
Móstoles CF 3+ goals
13%
El Álamo 1+ goals
67%
El Álamo 2+ goals
30%
El Álamo 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Móstoles CF (draw refunded)
55%
El Álamo (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Móstoles CF at home — creates 0.69, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

El Álamo away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.83 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Móstoles CF attack 0.69 + El Álamo defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.26

El Álamo attack 0.85 + Móstoles CF defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Móstoles CF scores more
40%
level
28%
El Álamo scores more
32%

Móstoles CF at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Móstoles CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Móstoles CF 0–1 El Álamo

El Álamo beat Móstoles CF 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on October 25, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de El Soto in Móstoles.