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Mostaganem vs Olympique Akbou — Ligue 1 2018

Mostaganem
Mostaganem
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Olympique Akbou
Olympique Akbou
4/10/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 22Stade Commandant Ferradj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Mostaganem34%
×Draw31%
Olympique Akbou35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mostaganem
1.00
Olympique Akbou
1.03

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 30 away

creates per match

Mostaganem
0.87
Olympique Akbou
0.90

allows per match

Mostaganem
1.17
Olympique Akbou
1.13

finishing

Mostaganem+0.00on par
Olympique Akbou+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mostaganem ↓

Olympique Akbou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Mostaganem or draw
65%
Mostaganem or Olympique Akbou
69%
Draw or Olympique Akbou
66%

Winning margin

Mostaganem wins by 2+
13%
Olympique Akbou wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Mostaganem 1+ goals
63%
Mostaganem 2+ goals
26%
Mostaganem 3+ goals
8%
Olympique Akbou 1+ goals
64%
Olympique Akbou 2+ goals
28%
Olympique Akbou 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Mostaganem (draw refunded)
49%
Olympique Akbou (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mostaganem at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.17 · 30 matches

Olympique Akbou away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mostaganem attack 0.87 + Olympique Akbou defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.00

Olympique Akbou attack 0.90 + Mostaganem defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Mostaganem scores more
34%
level
31%
Olympique Akbou scores more
35%

Olympique Akbou at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Olympique Akbou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mostaganem vs Olympique Akbou

Mostaganem and Olympique Akbou drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on April 10, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Commandant Ferradj in Mostaganem.