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Mosta vs Pietà Hotspurs — FA Trophy 2020

Mosta
Mosta
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Pietà Hotspurs
Pietà Hotspurs
1/13/2024FA TrophyFA Trophy · 1st RoundMFA Centenary Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Mosta92%
×Draw6%
Pietà Hotspurs2%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mosta
3.98
Pietà Hotspurs
0.57

Mosta creates 598% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Mosta
4.20
Pietà Hotspurs
0.75

allows per match

Mosta
0.40
Pietà Hotspurs
3.75

finishing

Mosta+0.00on par
Pietà Hotspurs+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mosta ↓

Pietà Hotspurs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–13%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–15%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–012%
4–17%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (12%) · grid covers 71% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Mosta or draw
98%
Mosta or Pietà Hotspurs
94%
Draw or Pietà Hotspurs
8%

Winning margin

Mosta wins by 2+
79%
Pietà Hotspurs wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Mosta 1+ goals
98%
Mosta 2+ goals
90%
Mosta 3+ goals
73%
Pietà Hotspurs 1+ goals
43%
Pietà Hotspurs 2+ goals
11%
Pietà Hotspurs 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Mosta (draw refunded)
98%
Pietà Hotspurs (draw refunded)
2%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mosta at home — creates 4.20, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

Pietà Hotspurs away — creates 0.75, concedes 3.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mosta attack 4.20 + Pietà Hotspurs defence 3.75 → ÷2 → 3.98

Pietà Hotspurs attack 0.75 + Mosta defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 92%?"

Mosta scores more
92%
level
6%
Pietà Hotspurs scores more
2%

Mosta at 92% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 92% does not mean "Mosta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mosta vs Pietà Hotspurs

Mosta beat Pietà Hotspurs 5-1 in FA Trophy on January 13, 2024.

The match was played at MFA Centenary Stadium in Ta'Qali.