Moss 2–1 Skeid: Result & Stats | 1. Division

Moss

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Skeid

B. Isufi 90'

A. Hapnes 39'

M. Andersen 51'

5/24/2025

1. Division · Round 8Melløs Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Moss56%

×Draw23%

Skeid22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MossExpected goals in this matchSkeid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.06

Moss

1.84

Skeid

1.06

Moss creates 74% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 47 away

1.81

creates per match

0.83

1.30

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Moss

1.81

Skeid

0.83

allows per match

Moss

1.30

Skeid

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Moss+0.00on par

Skeid+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moss ↓

Skeid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Moss or draw

78%

Moss or Skeid

77%

Draw or Skeid

44%

Winning margin

Moss wins by 2+

32%

Skeid wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Moss 1+ goals

84%

Moss 2+ goals

55%

Moss 3+ goals

28%

Skeid 1+ goals

65%

Skeid 2+ goals

29%

Skeid 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Moss (draw refunded)

72%

Skeid (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moss at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.30 · 53 matches

Skeid away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.87 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moss attack 1.81 + Skeid defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.84

Skeid attack 0.83 + Moss defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Moss scores more

56%

level

23%

Skeid scores more

22%

Moss at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Moss will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

27'

32'

39'

40'

46'

J. Fiksdal← M. Lindback

46'

O. Toure← L. Hoyland

51'

M. Andersen↳ J. Fiksdal

65'

K. Odemarksbakken← B. Rise

65'

F. Stensland← H. Yusuf

66'

M. Afonso← S. Gronli

78'

K. Sorensen← A. Memedov

78'

B. Isufi← B. Hegland

79'

K. Strande← M. Welinder

89'

T. Naustdal

90+2'

S. Bojang

90+4'

E. Tjostheim← M. Andersen

90'

B. Isufi↳ M. Afonso

Moss

Skeid

1

Andersen

22

▼

4

3

11

39

▼

Rise

8

▼

Yusuf

6

Naustdal

17

Saad

10

⚽

▼

Andersen

21

▼

1

2

4

24

▼

Welinder

23

Barros

8

Krohg

6

⚽

Hapnes

21

▼

Gronli

11

Jakobsen

10

▼

Hegland

19

▼

Memedov

Manager: Ole Martin Nesselquist

66'▲M. Afonso←▼S. Gronli

78'▲K. Sorensen←▼A. Memedov

78'▲B. Isufi←▼B. Hegland

79'▲K. Strande←▼M. Welinder

Moss substitutes

12Sundling3Strande20Sorensen26Isufi29Mayonga31Cerrada33Dahl37Antonsen49Afonso

Manager: Vilde Mollestad Rislaa

46'▲J. Fiksdal←▼M. Lindback

46'▲O. Toure←▼L. Hoyland

65'▲K. Odemarksbakken←▼B. Rise

65'▲F. Stensland←▼H. Yusuf

90+4'▲E. Tjostheim←▼M. Andersen

Skeid substitutes

24Solberg7Fiksdal14Toure16Odemarksbakken18Tjostheim25Dahlstrom26Sarotic33Stensland

1. Division: Moss 2–1 Skeid

Moss beat Skeid 2-1 in 1. Division on May 24, 2025.

Goals: A. Hapnes (39'), M. Andersen (51'), B. Isufi (90').

The match was played at Melløs Stadion in Moss.

Moss vs Skeid — 1. Division 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

1. Division: Moss 2–1 Skeid