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Moss vs Raufoss — 1. Division 2025

Moss
Moss
Preview
15:00
Raufoss
Raufoss
7/26/20261. Division1. Division · Round 15
54%
Moss
model favours
54%21%25%

Moss score first in only 15% of matches

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
70%
over 2.5 goals
68%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Moss54%
×Draw21%
Raufoss25%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moss
2.17
Raufoss
1.44

Moss creates 51% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 27 away

creates per match

Moss
1.96
Raufoss
1.22

allows per match

Moss
1.65
Raufoss
2.37

finishing

Moss+0.00on par
Raufoss+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moss ↓

Raufoss →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Moss or draw
75%
Moss or Raufoss
79%
Draw or Raufoss
46%

Winning margin

Moss wins by 2+
32%
Raufoss wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Moss 1+ goals
89%
Moss 2+ goals
64%
Moss 3+ goals
36%
Raufoss 1+ goals
76%
Raufoss 2+ goals
42%
Raufoss 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Moss (draw refunded)
68%
Raufoss (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moss at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.65 · 26 matches

Raufoss away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.37 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moss attack 1.96 + Raufoss defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.17

Raufoss attack 1.22 + Moss defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Moss scores more
54%
level
21%
Raufoss scores more
25%

Moss at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Moss will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both sides lean high-scoring (85% and 77% over 2.5)
  • 85% of Moss’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • 77% of Raufoss’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Raufoss score first in only 29% of matches
  • Both teams score in 77% of Moss’s matches
  • Both teams score in 71% of Raufoss’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Moss
LLLWD
Raufoss
WLWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Moss face Raufoss (1. Division)

1. Division returns with Moss hosting Raufoss. Match starts July 26, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.